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Where on the equator is it warm right now?

Scientists track four bands of equatorial Pacific Ocean — labelled Niño 1+2, 3, 3.4, and 4 from east to west — to detect and measure El Niño and La Niña. The eastern band, off the coast of Peru and Ecuador, usually warms first. The warm patch then expands westward over the next few months. Today the eastern band is already very warm; the central band has just crossed the El Niño threshold.

Region boundaries and monthly anomaly values from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and its Climate Prediction Center weekly sea-surface-temperature indices feed.

Where along the equator is it warm?

Each band shown in turn on the same Pacific basin, so you can see exactly where Niño 1+2, 3, 3.4 and 4 sit — and the order in which they warm.

Niño 1+2 —

The small box on the coast of Peru and Ecuador. Already very warm. The eastern Pacific typically warms first — it leads the full El Niño by one to three months.

Niño 3 —

The eastern equatorial Pacific (90°W to 150°W). The warming patch spreads here next, after Niño 1+2.

Niño 3.4 — main index

The central equatorial Pacific (120°W to 170°W). This is the band scientists use to declare El Niño and La Niña.

Niño 4 —

The western equatorial Pacific (160°E to 150°W). Warms last in the cycle. Typically lags the eastern bands by four to six months.

Monthly ocean-temperature anomalies since 1982 for each region — scan east-to-west: warmth building off Peru before the central Pacific is the classic developing El Niño pattern.

The next eighteen months — Pacific Ocean trajectory

A warm patch along the equator in the central Pacific is the trigger that drives every El Niño around the world. Each frame is the same Pacific basin — the patch grows, intensifies, fades, then reverses sign for La Niña. Today is the only observed frame; the next three sketch an illustrative path if this El Niño builds toward a strong or super event like 1997–98 or 2015–16 — not a calibrated forecast.

Now · June 2026 observed

+0.1 °C anomaly

Eastern Pacific (off Peru) already running hot at +1.5 °C; central Pacific just barely positive. The warm patch is forming where it usually starts.
Super-event scenario · late 2026 scenario

~+2.5 °C · super-event scale (1997 / 2015)

If 2026 builds like those years, the peak would land in late 2026 — but current outlooks favour only a transition to El Niño, with strength uncertain. A strong event bleaches coral reefs, suppresses Atlantic hurricanes while strengthening Pacific ones, dries Indonesian peatlands, and stresses Indian and southern-African crops.
Normalising · mid-2027 scenario

+0.4 °C anomaly · winding down

By mid-2027 the warm patch shrinks and weakens; ocean temperatures drift back toward the long-term average — the El Niño decay phase.
La Niña flip · late 2027 historical pattern

−1.0 °C anomaly · cool phase

Big El Niños have historically been followed by La Niña — the cool, mirror-image phase. After 1997–98 and 2015–16, ocean temperatures swung the other way for another one to three years.

Each frame is the same Pacific basemap. The red, orange, yellow or blue patch represents the equatorial warm or cool anomaly at that point in time. Frame 1 is observed (NOAA Climate Prediction Center, May 2026). Frames 2–4 are an illustrative path for a strong or super event, drawn from how 1997–98 and 2015–16 evolved — not a calibrated ensemble forecast. Current outlooks favour a transition to El Niño with uncertain strength; the La Niña flip frame is the typical post-super-El-Niño pattern, not a certainty.

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off Peru and Ecuador — warms first, leads the cycle

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the band scientists use to declare El Niño and La Niña

La Niña 0 El Niño

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Air pressure gap between the east tropical Pacific (Tahiti) and the west (Darwin, Australia) — the atmospheric signal of the cycle.

Is this tracking like a super El Niño?

Every cycle is lined up at its onset — month 0, the first three-month season the central-Pacific ocean temperature index crossed above zero on its way up. For 2026 that is February–March–April (FMA 2026, +0.11 °C), per NOAA Climate Prediction Center's published Oceanic Niño Index table. The historic super El Niños of 1972, 1982, 1997, and 2015 each peaked roughly twelve to fifteen months after their onset. The solid red line is the current cycle; the dotted marker shows where today sits. The dashed red line is an illustrative super-event analog (how 1997–98 and 2015–16 evolved), not a forecaster median. The question: are we climbing at the same rate as the past super events?

Important: "month 0" here is an analytical anchor, not an official declaration. NOAA only declares El Niño when the index stays at or above +0.5 °C for five consecutive overlapping three-month seasons. As of mid-2026 that has not yet happened — the central-Pacific index has not held above the threshold for five straight seasons, even though the eastern Pacific (Niño 1+2) is already running well above normal and historically leads the central index by one to three months. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's most recent monthly El Niño–Southern Oscillation blog discussion calls current conditions "neutral with a transition to El Niño favoured."

Central-Pacific temperature — last 30 years

The Niño 3.4 central-Pacific ocean temperature anomaly — three-month rolling average. Orange dashed line marks the El Niño threshold (+0.5 °C), blue dashed marks La Niña (−0.5 °C), red dotted marks the informal "super" event line (+2 °C). Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Oceanic Niño Index since 1950 — warming stripes

Each bar is one 3-month Oceanic Niño Index value. Blue = La Niña-like; white = neutral; orange/red = El Niño — deep red marks informal “super” events (≥ +2 °C).

What does El Niño mean near you?

Looking up your region…

Global impacts in progress

Live signals from sibling monitors that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation cycle typically drives. Click through to each for full detail.

What drives this

Ocean heat →A warmer ocean background changes the stage on which El Niño and La Niña unfold.
Pacific marine heatwaves →Regional warm pools can reinforce or complicate the cycle's development.

What this drives

Coral bleaching →El Niño years often stack heat stress onto already-warm reefs.
Drought and crops →The El Niño / La Niña cycle tilts rainfall odds across the US, Australia, Indonesia, Africa, and South America.
Atlantic hurricanes →El Niño tends to raise wind shear over the Atlantic and suppress storm formation.

How we know this

Sources: Sea-surface-temperature indices for the Niño regions, the Oceanic Niño Index (the 3-month central-Pacific Niño 3.4 index), and the Southern Oscillation Index, from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center — public text files, no programming key.
Update cadence: We download the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's files daily; values change when the Climate Prediction Center posts a new month (typically once per month).
Cross-tool impacts: Coral, marine heatwave, US drought, and global temperature tiles read sibling dashboards — each only as current as that tool.
Methods: Phase and strength labels use the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's published Oceanic Niño Index thresholds. “Super” El Niño overlays use an informal ±2 °C peak convention, not an official Climate Prediction Center category.
Limitations: “Near you” uses ipapi.co IP geolocation in your browser (optional third party). Teleconnection text is typical El Niño odds, not a forecast for your farm or city.
Primary data: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center — Oceanic Niño Index · How this page is built